Over The Pond – The 2025 Football Team Half Time report
Written by Julian Wheeler – Partner and US Equity Specialist
As we blow the whistle on the first half of 2025, it’s time to check in with our 2025 fantasy financial football team – those star stock picks that took the field back in January in our American football-style “Offence” lineup. (See here for a refresher.)
Grab your foam fingers as I break down the action from the past six months and reveal the new players taking us into the second half.
First Half Recap: More Hype than Score?
The first half of this year was dominated by macro events, more so than at any time since COVID five years ago. But after the violent Trump tariff trauma in April, the market has swiftly recovered its poise and posted a 5.5% gain for the S&P 500. If all my portfolio positions were held without change, then the result would have been a return of 1% less than that.
MVPs and Fumbles
But the dispersion of returns was huge. The MVP, Cloudflare, scored a +81% Touchdown from the Quarterback position, while Boeing ‘ran’ for over 18% despite the recent Air India crash. But we also saw a couple of fumbles:
- Volaris (Mexican airline): hit by tariffs and overcapacity
- Jefferies (Investment bank): impacted by a dearth of new deals coming to market
The Next Six Months
As a backdrop, I don’t believe the US will fall into recession, but the consumer may still face higher costs from tariffs – slowing growth just enough for the Fed to gently cut rates. This points to further dollar weakness and for value cyclicals to do better in second half than high beta Tech.
I also want to own companies on the ‘right side’ of any Trumpian influences, which remain one of the greatest risks to profitability and performance. Retailers importing from Asia look most exposed, while leading US exporters – especially those seen as Trump-aligned, like Boeing and newcomer Deere – are better positioned. We even have a beneficiary of the new steel tariffs: appliance maker Whirlpool.
Half-Time Substitutes: Who’s Off and Who’s On?
From the Starting 11, I make 4 changes, trying to minimise sectoral differences.
Out:
- Volaris – Tariff related weakness, plus excess capacity
- Cloudflare – a great long-term name, but having nearly doubled since April, I’m taking profits of over 80%.
- Gap Stores – the most tariff-exposed in the team
- Chubb – the ‘hard’ insurance market is ‘softening’ and so let’s bring on some fresh legs
In:
(Prices on June 30th)
- Deere ($508.16): Global leader in agricultural equipment. At the bottom of its cycle after a 30% drop in sales from peak, Deere is set to rebound. Precision ag-tech will lift margins, with software potentially reaching 10% of sales.
- MongoDB ($209.99): the back-up Quarterback to Cloudflare. This Cloud based database software company is set to recover from some missteps; one of the few high beta Tech companies that has underperformed in the first half of the year.
- Whirlpool ($101.43): leading appliance maker; critically they manufacture in the USA and source almost all their steel domestically. As opposed to most retailers, they are a tariff ‘winner’.
- Rocket Companies ($14.17): An unknown name to many. But this is real FinTech at scale, not just a disruptor idea. Now nearing a three-way merger with mortgage originator Mr. Cooper and estate agent Redfin – creating a potential “Amazon of Housing.”
Remaining Players Holding the Line
(All prices at start of year)
- Kenvue ($21.36): Consumer health (Listerine, Band-Aid). Defensive, with improving management and not impacted by weight-loss drug trends.
- Cheniere Energy ($215.15): US LNG export leader with long-term supply contracts to Europe and China. Could benefit from any trade resolution.
- Alphabet ($190.44): Arguably the cheapest of the Tech giants. A tough six months, but I’m staying long. Worst DoJ outcomes likely avoided. Search and ads will evolve, not disappear. Waymo is far ahead in autonomous driving—it has a real product; Tesla doesn’t.
- Jefferies ($78.44): So far, a disaster. But IPOs are beginning to emerge. I think I was early, not wrong.
- Boeing ($177): Up almost 20% YTD, with more expected, as I do not believe the Air India crash was their fault. Production is back at 38 planes/month, this can rise further once FAA gives clearance. Commercial orders are strong and the Defence division won a contract for the next-gen fighter plane, while it was their bombs that landed in Iran.
- Bluebird Corp. ($38.63): makes those iconic yellow school buses. An EV replacement cycle is underway. Trump-related volatility hit the stock early on, but it has recovered as the story remains strong—short, regular routes are ideal for electrification.
- Keysight Technologies ($160.72): A stealth AI play. Chips going into vast, power-hungry data centres need to work—flawlessly. Keysight tests and emulates components before they’re deployed, avoiding costly failures.
Here’s to touchdowns – not turnovers – in the second half of 2025.
For more background on our U.S. market views, visit the Over the Pond archive.
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